Janez Janša’s Return Risks Shifting Slovenia Toward Nationalist Friction

The new government’s composition remains inherently unstable. While Janša leads the Slovenian Democratic Party, his coalition relies on Anže Logar and Speaker Zoran Stevanović—both of whom previously campaigned against his leadership. This internal tension is poised to manifest in a sharp pivot toward social conservatism and a confrontational stance toward domestic institutions, including trade unions and the media.

Foreign policy faces a radical departure under the likely appointment of Tone Kajzer as foreign minister. Kajzer, previously dismissed as ambassador to the U.S. for a diplomatic breach, is expected to pivot Slovenia toward a more hawkish position on China and Russia, while simultaneously pushing to relocate the country's embassy in Israel to Jerusalem. Such a move would effectively dismantle Slovenia’s recent alignment with Spain, Ireland, and Norway regarding the recognition of Palestinian statehood.

Beyond external relations, the government’s arrival signals a potential clash within EU institutions. Plans to remove European Commissioner Marta Kos suggest a continuation of Janša’s long-standing personal and political vendettas. By treating European unity as a tool for nationalist leverage rather than a framework for collective action, the new administration risks transforming Slovenia into a volatile actor capable of stalling critical decisions that require unanimous consent.